When US President Donald Trump announced sweeping global tariffs – including a staggering 46 per cent levy on Vietnam – on April 2, Hanoi immediately expressed deep disappointment, calling the move inconsistent with their newly elevated comprehensive strategic partnership. But Trump has never been one for diplomatic niceties. In his world view, most countries are neither friends nor foes but “rippers” and “robbers” of American wealth. He scorns the old playbook, operating without a coherent framework that balances economic priorities with geopolitical imperatives. The assumption that Trump could somehow be “managed”, as during his first term, has proved to be misguided.
Advertisement
The Vietnamese reaction to Trump’s tariffs has been one of deep bewilderment and shock. Around the world, there had been widespread complacency that any “reciprocal tariffs” would be far more modest than the sweeping measures Trump unveiled. In Vietnam, confidence in the country’s ability to navigate Trump 2.0 had been palpable before April 2, especially among the public. An October 2024 poll conducted by VNExpress, the country’s most widely read online news outlet, found that 78 per cent of respondents preferred Trump to Kamala Harris.
Admiration for strongmen like Trump and Russia’s Vladimir Putin, alongside hopes that the US president would be tough on China – a country widely distrusted in Vietnam – has fuelled pro-Trump sentiment among many Vietnamese. This is despite the historical reality that Democratic US presidents have consistently done more to improve Vietnam-US relations. It was under Bill Clinton that Washington normalised relations with Hanoi in 1995 and signed the bilateral trade agreement granting Vietnam most-favoured nation status in 2000. Barack Obama lifted a lethal arms sale embargo against Hanoi and elevated ties to a comprehensive partnership in 2013. Under Joe Biden, relations were further upgraded to a comprehensive strategic partnership, while trade, aid, and American investments in Vietnam reached record highs.
To Lam (left), general secretary of Vietnam’s Communist Party, meets then-US president Joe Biden in New York last year. Photo: AFP
Optimism about Trump 2.0 extended to Vietnam’s elite as well. According to the State of Southeast Asia 2025 survey, released on April 3 – and based on polling completed before February 15 – 73.6 per cent of Vietnamese respondents expressed confidence that Vietnam–US relations would improve or significantly improve over the next four years; 74.1 per cent welcomed US economic influence; and 60.6 per cent expressed confidence, or strong confidence, that the US would do the right thing for global peace, security, prosperity, and governance – a level of optimism ranking among the highest in the region.
Trump’s tariff announcement soon shattered this confidence, with Vietnam considered among the hardest-hit economies, alongside China, Cambodia and Laos. The news sent Vietnam’s stock index tumbling by 6.7 per cent, marking its steepest single-day drop in history. The Vietnamese leadership’s ambitious targets of 8 per cent growth in 2025 and double-digit growth in the years beyond now appear increasingly out of reach. If enacted, the tariffs could shave 2 to 3 per cent off Vietnam’s gross domestic product this year, risking a cascade of economic impacts from widespread lay-offs to a potential exodus of foreign investment.
02:30
Chinese woman recaptured after escape from Panama hotel holding hundreds deported by the US
Chinese woman recaptured after escape from Panama hotel holding hundreds deported by the US
The damage doesn’t end there. Trump’s hardline anti-immigration policy is expected to intensify the deportation of Vietnamese immigrants from the US, which hosts a Vietnamese community of around 2.5 million. He had tried this before, with limited success, in 2018.
Advertisement
Meanwhile, the abrupt shutdown of USAID programmes has jeopardised crucial bilateral initiatives aimed at addressing war legacies, such as demining, unexploded ordnance clearance, and support for Vietnamese victims of Agent Orange. The effects are already visible: about 1,000 demining personnel have been temporarily laid off, and thousands of families have lost access to US-funded disability services.
