Japan projects up to 298,000 fatalities in potential Nankai Trough ‘megaquake’
The figure is revised from previous projections of 323,000 deaths, but economic damage is estimated to increase to US$2 trillion
Japan has estimated that up to 298,000 people could die if a “megaquake” of about magnitude 9 occurs along the Nankai Trough south of the country’s Pacific coast.
The government’s estimate on Monday revised previous projections in 2012 and 2013 down from 323,000 deaths, reflecting an increase in quake-resilient buildings and tsunami evacuation facilities, The Japan Times newspaper reported.
However, it still falls short of the government’s targets to reduce deaths by 80 per cent and the number of damaged buildings by 50 per cent by the end of the 2023 financial year.
The Nankai Trough, an 800km (500-mile) undersea trench running from Shizuoka, west of Tokyo, to the southern tip of Kyushu island, sits where two tectonic plates meet.
Along the fault, the Philippine Sea oceanic tectonic plate is “subducting” – or slowly slipping – underneath the continental plate that Japan sits atop.
As they move, the plates become stuck, storing up vast amounts of energy that is released when they break free, causing potentially massive earthquakes or megaquakes.