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South China Sea
ChinaMilitary

Even as US military stretched and distracted, South China Sea activity rose: paper

SCSPI think tank says US may adopt primary approach of drones or autonomous weapons to address ‘quantity anxiety’ in the contested waters

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The US military sent three carrier strike groups, including the USS Carl Vinson, for eight activities gaining access to the South China Sea last year, according to a Beijing-based think tank report. Photo: AP
Seong Hyeon Choi
The United States increased its activity in the South China Sea last year to “varying levels” as it moved to strengthen its presence in the region, but its rise was hampered by the number of vessels at its disposal and “distractions” elsewhere, according to a Chinese think tank report.

While its presence in the contested waterway might have increased, the number of “island-intrusive” freedom of navigation operations (FONOPs) and transits through the Taiwan Strait by the US had dropped, it said.

According to an annual report on US military activities by Beijing-based think tank the South China Sea Strategic Situation Probing Initiative (SCSPI) on Tuesday, American armed forces maintained a “high-intensity military presence” in the South China Sea and surrounding areas in 2024, following a trend of increasing both the frequency and intensity of US “activities against China” since 2009.

The report said that despite the ongoing conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East, the number and frequency of US military platforms, such as vessels and aircraft, operating in the South China Sea last year had “varying levels of increases”.

However, the report also said the US military had shown greater risk-control awareness by reducing provocative aerial close-in reconnaissance missions to China, with the authors stating it had “stagnated, reaching their limits”.

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History, money and military: why the South China Sea is so important to Beijing

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According to SCSPI, the US continues to leverage the Philippines as a “key node” to find “increments”, significantly intensifying exercises, drills and strategic and tactical deployments aimed at the South China Sea and the Taiwan Strait.

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