China still leads the pack in Africa’s critical minerals race as US struggles to keep up

China’s aggressive pursuit of critical minerals – particularly across Africa – has raised concerns in Washington and sparked a global rare earths race. But, with a two-year head start, as well as the impetus to do what it must to fuel its hi-tech electronics, renewable energy and defence systems, China is unlikely to lose its leading position, according to experts. From the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) to Botswana and Zimbabwe, Chinese companies have spent more than US$10 billion acquiring mining and critical mineral assets in Africa. These investments in minerals like cobalt, lithium and rare earths were mostly secured in 2023 and 2024. Within two years of the pandemic, China “gradually but steadfastly resumed its economic engagement with Africa” and made a noticeable shift towards acquiring mining and critical mineral assets there, according to a Brookings Institution article last week. The DRC, which is by far the world’s largest producer of cobalt and a key source of copper, was a hotspot for Chinese investments, attracting about US$1 billion in 2023 alone, the report said. However, last week the Financial Times reported that the United States was engaged in “exploratory talks” with the DRC about a deal that would grant access to the country’s critical minerals in exchange for military support. China’s biggest acquisition last year was in Botswana, where Hong Kong-listed mining company MMG, backed by state-owned China Minmetals Corporation, acquired Botswana’s Khoemacau copper mine for US$1.9 billion. MMG plans to more than double the mine’s production capacity to 130,000 tonnes per year by 2028. In total, just in 2023, Chinese companies invested US$7.9 billion in various metals and mining projects across Africa. They bought interests in lithium processing plants in Mali and Zimbabwe, and expanded their presence in South Africa, Zambia, Guinea, Angola and Nigeria. Observers said the acquisition of mining assets would ensure a steady supply of critical minerals for China’s industries, reduce dependence on external sources and mitigate supply chain risks. Yun Sun, a non-resident fellow at the US think tank Brookings Institution, said Africa’s critical minerals were crucial for China’s production of electric vehicles, batteries and solar panels, which were central to its export growth. “Africa is a key producer of these critical minerals,” Sun said. “That’s why large Chinese investments in 2023 and 2024 have focused on these areas.” Geoeconomic analyst Aly-Khan Satchu, who specialises in sub-Saharan Africa, said China had taken a more forward-leaning posture in mining and critical mineral acquisitions in Africa. “I believe China’s dominant global manufacturing position means it is compelled along this acquisitive path as it seeks to protect and position its supply chain,” Satchu said. China was also embedding and entrenching its overall position, he said. “Soon it will be so far ahead of the curve, its competitors will have lost sight of it.” Ovigwe Eguegu, a policy analyst at Beijing-based consultancy Development Reimagined, said China was a processing and refining hub for a significant portion of the global supply of these critical and strategic minerals. “The ongoing green transition means global demand for critical and strategic minerals is surging. So is competition among the highly industrialised economies for these minerals,” he said. Lauren Johnston, a China-Africa specialist and associate professor at the University of Sydney’s China Studies Centre, said that in addition to more general geoeconomic competition, the trade war and supply chain shocks like Covid-19 and Russia’s war on Ukraine had made sovereign access to these resources more competitive and more of a national priority. Johnston said China had, moreover, captured the frontier of mining and process technologies in terms of rare earths. “Much of this processing is quite dirty and chemically dangerous, so Western countries were quite happy that China had this monopoly for many years,” Johnston said. But now, China’s massive investment in critical minerals, especially in the DRC, has attracted the attention of the West, especially Washington. The Trump administration will make a lot of noise, but the jig is up Aly-Khan Satchu, geoeconomic analyst However, the US was already too late to the party, Satchu said. “The Trump administration will make a lot of noise, but the jig is up.” According to Eguegu, although China already has a commanding position in Africa’s natural resources, it will not be complacent. “Beijing would likely double down on mining investments in Africa to consolidate its position,” he said. Last year, China announced a ban on exporting refined rare earth metals to the US that are classified as “dual use”. “Trump on the one hand is busy trying to acquire Greenland for reasons of securing supplies of core minerals,” Johnston said. “It seems he thinks this is a preferred option to fighting it out with China in Africa. American companies are also elevating investments elsewhere, like Australia, in these key areas. But Africa is surely not off the table.” John Calabrese, a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute, noted that the US launched the Lobito Corridor railway project late in the Biden administration’s term. “By then, the US already had a lot of catching up to do, as China is already the primary player in Africa’s critical minerals sector, by far,” Calabrese said. He noted that compounding the challenge of China’s big “lead” in the race to secure Africa’s critical minerals, the US faced two additional hurdles. China’s state-led approach, as opposed to America’s private-sector model, gave it an inherent advantage in mobilising investment and managing risk, Calabrese said. He added that it was unclear whether the Trump administration had, or would soon develop, an “Africa strategy” and if so, whether it would put shoulder to the wheel in implementing the Lobito project or others like it.

China still leads the pack in Africa’s critical minerals race as US struggles to keep up

Beijing has spent years – and billions – investing in Africa’s mining sector, and it is now paying off, experts say

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