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China’s carbon neutral goal: can it really kick its coal addiction to achieve its 2060 target?

  • Phasing out the use of coal is one of the biggest challenges facing China as it works towards peaking emissions by 2030 and becoming carbon neutral by 2060
  • Despite climate ambitions, energy security and economic stability will drive use of the fossil fuel in world’s second largest economy for decades, say experts

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Coal has powered China’s breakneck economic growth over the past four decades, but it also presents one of the biggest challenges to its climate ambitions. Illustration: Lau Ka-kuen

Ahead of this week’s summit of global leaders to discuss ways of tackling climate change, this South China Morning Post series looks into how attitudes have changed among China’s leadership, the challenges faced by the world’s largest polluter and what we can expect from Thursday’s meeting.

When China pledged in September to reach carbon neutrality in four decades and peak emissions before 2030, it was a watershed moment in the global fight against climate change.

But seven months later, one question in particular hangs over those goals: can the world’s biggest emitter of carbon dioxide kick its addiction to coal?

Coal has powered China’s breakneck economic growth over the past four decades, but it also presents one of the biggest challenges to its climate ambitions. 

Given that new coal-fired power plants are still being built and that steel plants will be needed, I would expect coal to continue to play a significant, though declining, role for many years
Dr Philip Andrews-Speed
Although many scientists and policymakers in Beijing want to see the country hasten its transition away from the fossil fuel, concerns about energy security, economic stability and the powerful interests of cash-strapped local governments and giant state-owned enterprises are all pulling China the other way. 

“Given that new coal-fired power plants are still being built and that steel plants will be needed, I would expect coal to continue to play a significant, though declining, role for many years,” said Dr Philip Andrews-Speed, senior principal fellow at the Energy Studies Institute in Singapore and a China energy expert.

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